When is the best time to buy property? And when is the best time to sell?

When it comes to buying or selling property in Melbourne, timing isn’t just a throwaway line — it’s an essential part of the strategy. Listing activity ebbs and flows with the seasons, and understanding this rhythm can make a world of difference, whether you’re a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, an upgrader, down-sizer, or a seller looking to optimise your sales result. Seasons aren’t just related to the weather though, and events, government initiatives and variable public holidays can also influence sales campaigns.

Melbourne real estate has a pulse, and this pulse tends to beat strongest in spring, followed by autumn. But before I dive into the nuances of the seasons, it’s important to note that good quality properties can transact year-round. Some vendors can’t and don’t wait for a particular time of year, and some buyers don’t have the luxury of taking their time to secure a property. But by understanding the quirks of seasonality, buyers and sellers can optimise their approach, especially in a competitive market.

It is important to note, however, that Melbourne’s real estate seasonality isn’t representative of other parts of Victoria. In fact, holiday high-season can mark peak selling period for some coastal and holiday regions. For the purposes of highlighting seasonality, this blog solely relates to Melbourne and Geelong, (with the exception of the Spring long weekends that signify Melbourne sporting events). Geelong enjoy their own horse racing Cup Day a fortnight earlier than Melbourne do, and whether the Cats make the semi-finals or not, will certainly impact vendor’s decisions around auction dates.

Spring: The Busiest Listing Season

Ask any Melbourne real estate agent about the busiest time of year and you’ll hear one word — spring. As the weather warms and gardens burst into colour, listings bloom across Melbourne and regional Victoria. Sellers are drawn to the idea of showcasing their properties at their aesthetic peak, and buyers are out in force, often having waited through winter for more stock to appear. For many, football season has concluded too, as have childrens’ winter sports. It’s a well-accepted time to buy and sell property.

From September through to early December, open for inspections are usually buzzing. This is peak auction season. The atmosphere is vibrant, but so is the competition. If you’re a buyer, be prepared: have your finance pre-approved, and your due diligence done. You’ll need to be prepared to move swiftly, especially for good quality properties.

For sellers, spring can also present a double-edged sword.

The buyers are in force and the gardens look great. But there are far more listings to compete with, and the buyer-count is much harder for sales agents to rely upon because buyers can leap from one campaign to another very quickly. Even within single agencies, some listings can cannibalise other listing’s buyers.

Spring, (and particularly late spring) is a time when selling agents are more likely to encourage pre-auction offers. They appreciate the risk that unpredictability can play on their vendor’s campaigns, and they will often engage with buyers to make early offers when they are concerned about other listings posing a threat.

Buyers and sellers also need to consider the impact of the two long weekends in Melbourne during the Spring season. Grand Final Friday and the Melbourne Cup Tuesday augment sales campaigns too. The chance of a super-Saturday is at it’s highest for the weekends either side of these two quiet weekends.

Summer: The Quiet Hustle

Once mid-December hits, the market shifts significantly. With school holidays, Christmas festivities and family holidays, both buyers and sellers tend to check out of the market for a while. January is the sleepiest month in Victorian real estate. That said, I never discount January for real estate transacting.

Some of the best December-leftover negotiations can take place in the new year, even if it’s just skeleton staff running the office. Pre-market and off-market deals often happen in summer too. For vendors who committed to a purchase in December, many will be keen to finalise their sale in order to meet their settlement obligations. There are fewer buyers around, which means less competition. Vendors with properties still on the market will be at the mercy of a private negotiation campaign during this time. The committed vendors will be prepared to meet the market, particularly if they’re under pressure to sell before the new year’s auction season opens.

If you’re buying in January, you’re often dealing with motivated sellers — and that can be a lucrative opportunity. But buyers need to carefully conduct their due diligence because not every listing that’s lingered over the holidays is a hidden gem. Some may be problematic properties that didn’t sell for good reason.

Autumn: The Second Wind

Autumn is often seen as the second-best season for both buying and selling — and in some cases, it’s even better than spring. The market picks up in February and carries through to late May, before the winter slowdown.

Buyers who missed out in spring and summer come back into the fold, reinvigorated. Sellers who’ve waited to polish their homes post-Christmas launch into campaigns with fresh energy. The weather is still mild, gardens are still looking lovely, and people are back into their routines.

Autumn is also a season where savvy investors make moves. There’s more stock to choose from, and many have had a summer break that has enabled them to take stock and formulate a new years’ action-plan.

Early February can deliver a glut of buyers that dwarfs stock levels. If buyers jump back in sooner than listing volumes have reached a comfortable, autumn peak, Melbourne can exhibit strong growth for the month. This growth is often attributed to buyer eagerness and an insufficient supply of dwellings on the market. The threat of this occurring can be amplified when external economic and government changes are impacting sentiment. Some examples of this include interest rates, government incentives and initiatives, looming elections, unemployment rates and global events.

Market sentiment is always buoyed when there is a hint of interest rate cuts.

Easter and ANZAC day can throw a surprise into the mix for autumn sales. Easter is a variable date, and depending on whether it sits closer to the Labour Day long weekend, or the ANZAC day holiday can have a dramatic impact on buying and selling conditions. Take this year, for example. Melbourne property auctions are almost all avoiding falling on either of these two weekends in a row.

In the lead up to such a defined break from auction activity, the weekends either side of these two weekends are both particularly busy. Much like the late Spring rush, agents are more open to discussing pre-auction offers with their vendors when micro-gluts strike.

Winter: The Underdog Season, or the Strategic Season?

Winter often gets a bad rap in real estate, but it’s far from dead. Listings taper off, and grey skies and dormant gardens can dull a home’s visual charm. But there’s a real opportunity in winter for both buyers and sellers.

For buyers, there’s less competition. Fewer people attend inspections, auctions can be quieter, and agents will be more likely to share some pre-market activity. Particularly if a listing agent has a growing book of vendors who are locking in Spring campaigns, buyers can get lucky. Those who are specific about what they are looking for may get some exciting opportunities to buy before a property officially hits the market.

Buyers need to be conscious of the reasons why agents may not be so keen to take pre-auction offers in Winter, however. Firstly, if buyer demand is matching or eclipsing supply, an agent will know that an auction may deliver the strongest result for their vendor. Secondly, agents rely on exposure at opens and auctions to meet more prospective vendors. Exposure is important, because an agent with few listings risks meeting fewer people who will transact.

For sellers, a winter campaign can actually be quite strategic — especially for unique or well-positioned properties. With fewer listings, their home can stand out more. In addition, they are far less likely to have their campaign threatened by another, similar property going to market. And buyers who are inspecting homes in June and July are generally quite serious about buying.

So, When’s the Right Time?

The short answer is: it depends on your circumstances, your readiness, and the type of property you’re buying or selling.

Seasonality really gives us context. It helps manage expectations, enables buyers and sellers to understand quick-pivots better, allows us to take advantage of more opportunities with confidence. But there’s never a bad time to transact — just the right time for you.

The key is preparation. Understand the landscape, know the competition, and don’t let timing paralyse your decisions.

Real estate is a long game. Purchasing the right property is the critical part.

Whether you’re buying in the depths of winter or selling in the height of spring, strategy — not season — is what delivers success.